The future of work: Leading at the edge of chaos
In her book ‘When the Dust Settles’ Professor Lucy Easthope, one of the country’s top advisers on disaster recovery, talks of how, because of the pandemic, we are all now disaster survivors - and that disaster recovery is long and difficult. She predicted pogroms and riots, and talks of how disasters never occur in isolation.
“They domino into other disasters. And, as they unfurl, they become entangled with the other challenges in our lives that would have occurred regardless.”
After the pandemic I was frequently asked by various media outlets to comment on the future of work. At one particular event, where I was a guest on a panel, I clashed with all the other guests as I described how the world of work was changed for good and the next few years would be about shaping the new normal.
Since the pandemic, global recovery has been taking place exactly as Lucy predicted. Today, organisations all over the world find themselves navigating an uncertain future in an environment of hyper-polarisation, economic volatility, mind-blowing AI technological disruption and geopolitical shifts.
The attempt by many corporate leaders to regain the illusion of control is futile. The shift is shaping the new normal, demanding a new leadership paradigm.
And in the shape shifting organisation of the future, command and control leadership is history. The goal for modern leaders is not to regain an illusion of absolute control, but rather to redefine what 'adaptive control' means in a chaotic, fractal world. This redefinition shifts from a top-down, command-and-control approach to one that is adaptive, distributed and influence-based. This new paradigm, deeply aligned with VUCA leadership, emphasises strategic foresight, deep understanding, human-centred leadership clarity of purpose and organisational agility as essential competencies for navigation in workplaces today.
Technological disruption, AI's impact on leadership and geopolitical risk management are shifting organisational priorities
Today's future of work leadership challenges in the UK are characterised by constant flux, unforeseen disruptions and a pervasive sense among leaders that their grip on traditional control mechanisms is eroding. This shift necessitates human-centred leadership and strategic foresight in volatile times to build organisational resilience.
Technological disruption, particularly the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), represents a significant force multiplier, profoundly impacting digital transformation leadership. Understanding AI's impact on leadership is paramount. AI is capable of triggering massive, industry-wide transformations from seemingly small adjustments in algorithms or data processing. While the majority of global CEOs (71%) and senior executives (78%) express excitement about AI's potential impact , only a mere 1% of companies are considered mature in AI deployment, with leadership often identified as the primary barrier to full integration. AI's transformative potential includes flattening management structures by potentially eliminating more than half of middle-management roles, but it also raises significant ethical concerns such as job displacement and the amplification of bias if not carefully managed.
Geopolitical risk management becomes vital as an increasingly multipolar world, the rise of economic nationalism, and ongoing armed conflicts fundamentally rewrite the framework for international business. Organisations that ignore these geopolitical dynamics risk losing access to critical markets, suppliers, and sources of finance. Leaders are compelled to adopt new frameworks to navigate rapid shifts in regulatory environments and sudden changes in trade relations, moving from a reactive stance to a proactive, opportunity-driven mindset.
These economic, technological, and geopolitical factors are not isolated challenges; they are interconnected elements of a complex adaptive system, where a small shift in one area can cascade and amplify effects across others. For instance, an economic downturn can accelerate AI adoption for cost-cutting measures , which in turn may exacerbate job displacement , potentially leading to social unrest that influences geopolitical stability. Conversely, geopolitical tensions can disrupt supply chains, compelling technological innovation in localised production strategies. Leaders must recognise that these external forces are not separate variables but interconnected elements of a complex adaptive system. This understanding necessitates holistic, integrated strategic responses, rather than siloed problem-solving, as forces are constantly in flux and influence each other in unpredictable ways.
Boardroom confidence is low
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™, developed in collaboration with The Business Council, experienced a significant drop of 26 points in the second quarter of 2025, reaching a level of 34. This marks the lowest point since Q4 2022, with any reading below 50 reflecting a prevalence of negative over positive responses. This sharp downturn signals a profound shift in outlook.
Manager engagement is low
Global employee engagement declined to 21% in 2024, marking the first decrease in four years and only the second such drop in the past 12 years. This trend is particularly concerning because managers experienced the largest decline in engagement, with their engagement levels falling from 30% to 27% in 2024. Young and female managers were disproportionately affected by this drop.
Burnout is a major risk
Managers describe feeling physical tiredness, an inability to sleep or switch off from work, persistent stress and tension, and difficulty concentrating. The reported stress and burnout suggest that demand placed on managers is unsustainable, leading to a diminished capacity for effective leadership and broader organisational vulnerability in maintaining a healthy, productive workforce.
Employee fear is high
Management mood is contagious and looking to leadership for reassurance amid an uncertain future, employee fears are increasing as leader confidence is low. Fear of job loss in a potential looming recession, job obsoletion through technological disruption and ethical concerns regarding AI is impacting morale, wellbeing and productivity.
Redefining leadership control through the lens of Chaos Theory
Today's workplace is operating in constant flux, unforeseen disruptions and a pervasive sense among leaders that they are losing their grip on control. The traditional tools and mental models that leaders relied upon for control, such as rigid strategic planning and long-term forecasting, are proving inadequate in this Brave New World.
In addition the widespread adoption of remote and hybrid work models presents unique hybrid work leadership challenges. This fundamental shift demands that leaders acquire new skills to build trust, empower, and effectively engage distributed teams, with a strong focus on employee wellbeing leadership
Traditional linear thinking simply won’t cut it with modern organisational challenges. Instead, insights from complexity science, specifically Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry, offer insightful lenses for understanding these dynamics. Chaos Theory describes dynamic systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, where even small changes can lead to vastly different outcomes – a phenomenon popularly known as the "butterfly effect". This concept directly mirrors the unpredictable ripple effects observed in today's business environment. Fractals, on the other hand, are infinitely complex, self-similar patterns that repeat across different scales. This analogy helps visualise how organisational structures, behaviors, and challenges might manifest similarly from the individual level to the enterprise level.
These concepts are not merely illustrative tools; they provide a foundational scientific framework for understanding the inherent nature of complex adaptive systems like organisations.
Today's workplace is operating in constant flux, unforeseen disruptions and a pervasive sense among leaders that they are losing their grip on control. The metrics opposite highlight the perfect storm that is driving this leadership perception. The traditional tools and mental models that leaders relied upon for control, such as rigid strategic planning and long-term forecasting, are proving inadequate in this Brave New World.
Traditional linear thinking simply won’t cut it with modern organisational challenges. Instead, insights from complexity science, specifically Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry, offer insightful lenses for understanding these dynamics. Chaos Theory describes dynamic systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, where even small changes can lead to vastly different outcomes – a phenomenon popularly known as the "butterfly effect". This concept directly mirrors the unpredictable ripple effects observed in today's business environment. Fractals, on the other hand, are infinitely complex, self-similar patterns that repeat across different scales. This analogy helps visualise how organisational structures, behaviors, and challenges might manifest similarly from the individual level to the enterprise level.
These concepts are not merely illustrative tools; they provide a foundational scientific framework for understanding the inherent nature of complex adaptive systems like organisations.
Organisational re-design for adaptive performance: Core principles
Leadership of the many by the many
The fractal organisation is characterised by self-similarity, meaning that smaller parts of the organisation reflect the characteristics and principles of the whole. Leadership is viewed as a dynamic process involving all members, rather than a role concentrated in a select few. This represents a fundamental departure from traditional hierarchical, command-and-control models toward more adaptive, co-operative and collaborative structures.
Leaders don’t micromanage to maintain coherence; they role-model desired behaviours and explicitly underpin processes with core values.
Empowerment as a design principle
This goes beyond delegation. a fundamental design principle, cultivating empowered teams and enabling self-organising teams. This approach involves systematically giving teams the autonomy to innovate, solve problems, and make decisions within defined boundaries. The concept of autonomy serves as the ‘fractal seed’ from which engagement and productivity grow.
This autonomy mitigates the need for traditional, intrusive control.
Bounded instability
Complexity Adaptive Theory describes systems as existing in a state of bounded instability – operating at the edge of chaos, between complete order and total disorder.
Distributed teams, with their inherent autonomy and reduced direct supervision, naturally operate within this zone. The challenges identified in remote work represent the instability inherent in such systems, while the proposed solutions aim to keep this instability bounded and productive.
Unpredictable certainty
While specific outcomes may be inherently unpredictable , a firm foundation of organisational values and a disciplined, data-driven decision-making process can provide a steadying force. This shifts the leadership focus from asking "how" to asking "why", emphasising curiosity, continuous learning and adaptation. This allows for agile responses that remain deeply aligned with the organisation's core purpose.
Leadership actions for unpredictable certainty
Navigating the complexities of modern leadership requires human-centred leadership strategies that embrace the principles of chaos theory and fractals. These approaches enable leaders to cultivate influence and foster resilience in an increasingly unpredictable world.
Foster Psychological Safety and Transparency
Strategy: Create an environment where employees feel safe to give honest feedback, raise concerns and admit mistakes without fear of punishment. This involves open communication, regular team check-ins, deep listening and transparent decision-making.
Chaos: Directly counters a culture of fear by allowing early detection of small changes or butterfly flutters that could otherwise amplify into catastrophic failures. It fosters a healthy feedback loop crucial for adaptive organisations to learn and evolve.
Fractal Principle: Not explicitly mentioned as a fractal principle, but the concept of "feedback loops" aligns with the interconnected and self-referential nature often seen in fractal systems.
Actionable Steps: Establish open communication channels; implement regular team check-ins; actively seek diverse perspectives; be transparent about decisions, especially those impacting employee values.
Embrace experimentation and scenario planning
Strategy: Cultivate a culture that encourages innovation and calculated risk-taking through small, controlled butterfly flutters to test new approaches. Integrate scenario planning into regular strategic reviews, developing multiple plausible scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, disruptive) and testing operational plans against each. Consider corporate ‘situation rooms’ to monitor real-time developments.
Chaos: Since long-term prediction is impossible in chaotic systems, the focus shifts to continuous adaptation and learning through an iterative "Do/Pause/Reflect" process. Scenario planning helps prepare for diverse futures and identify transformational triggers turning disruptions into opportunities.
Fractal Principle: The concept of butterfly flutters relates to the sensitive dependence on initial conditions found in chaotic and fractal systems. The iterative "Do/Pause/Reflect" process is a way of interacting with a complex system to learn and adapt.
Actionable Steps: Encourage innovation and calculated risk-taking; integrate scenario planning into regular strategic reviews; develop multiple plausible scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, disruptive); test operational plans against each scenario; establish corporate ‘situation rooms’ or dedicated teams for real-time monitoring.
Invest in adaptive capabilities
Strategy: Prioritise continuous learning and skill development for all employees and leaders. This includes targeted training in AI proficiency, enhancing emotional intelligence for leaders, developing agile decision-making skills and improving digital communication for effective hybrid and remote team collaboration. This proactive investment builds organisational resilience. Foster a growth mindset and view change as an opportunity.
Chaos: In unpredictable environments, adaptive capabilities enable continuous recontextualisation and allow for quick, decisive pivots in response to emergent patterns. This proactive investment builds resilience, helping the system self-organise and create order out of chaos.
Fractal Principle: The ability to recontextualise and pivot quickly and decisively in response to emergent patterns reflects a self-organising capability often observed in complex adaptive systems.
Actionable Steps: Provide targeted training in AI proficiency, emotional intelligence, agile decision-making, and digital communication; encourage a growth mindset; view change as an opportunity for development.
Redefine accountability and empower decision-making
Strategy: Shift from micromanagement to focusing on outcomes, trusting employees with ownership of their work. This is key to successful employee empowerment strategies Clearly define roles, responsibilities and expectations, linking accountability directly with empowerment. Provide adequate resources and support.
Chaos: This approach prevents ‘command and control’ creep, which stifles initiative and disrupts internal order. It enables faster, more localised responses to emergent challenges.
Fractal Principle: Aligns with the fractal principle of self-similarity and distributed influence. By pushing decision-making down, it fosters super-agency where individuals can enhance creativity and productivity.
Actionable Steps: Define clear roles, responsibilities and expectations; link accountability with empowerment; provide adequate resources and support; empower employees to make decisions.
